Election 2000 Predictions… If, Maybe, Possibly… Is A Republican Land Slide In The Cards?

In spite of the fact that polls now show the race neck and neck between Al Gore and George W. Bush, it is possible that Gore could be on his way to the worst landslide defeat since Nixon crushed McGovern in 1972. Consider these facts:

1. Democrats are not showing signs of enthusiasm for the Gore campaign. In spite of the spirited challenge by former Senator Bill Bradley, just ten percent of eligible Democrat voters turned out in the primaries.

2. Clinton fatigue may be growing as more revelations prove the Republican impeachment charges were true. Today, a majority of Americans now say they favor impeachment. Republican members of the House Impeachment team, once thought to have committed political suicide, now lead in their re-election races. Americans are growing tired of the constant air of scandal surrounding the Clinton/Gore Administration.

3. Gore’s personal scandals continue to surface, particularly those concerning illegal fund – raising practices. As a result, his attempts to position himself as the campaign finance reform candidate has produced outright laughter in a growing number of circles. Even the liberal media is expressing surprise that he would take up such a cause. CNN produced a report discussing Gore’s position over file tape of the Vice President attending the illegal Buddhist Temple fund-raiser, then switching to new shots of Gore associates being convicted for involvement in the event. The report ended with George W. Bush addressing an audience and drawing strong laughter as he mentions Gore’s new dedication to campaign finance reform. Watch for more Gore-related scandals to surface as the campaign progresses. Usually the challenger worries about an “October Surprise” where the incumbent uses his power and position to create policy or make headlines that leave his opponent in the dust. However, this year, the “surprise” just may go against Gore in the form of more revelations of scandals or legal actions.

4. With gas prices rising, Gore may finally have to face what has been a smoking gun since 1992 – his radical environmental positions as clearly defined in his book, Earth in the Balance. Gore declared war on the automobile, calling for its demise. In the book he outlined programs and tax increases on gasoline to force drivers to find alternatives to their beloved mode of personal transportation. The OPEC increases are highly favored by Gore and environmentalists, seen as a positive to their anti-car goals. The Clinton Administration will do nothing to repeal the “Gore” federal gas excise tax, nor will Gore take action to aid the reduction of pump prices, even if and when OPEC increases production. His book details plans for more taxes to keep pump prices higher and for green auto restrictions to grow ever stronger. Americans, meanwhile, are beginning to call for more production of American oil and less import of foreign oil. Gore’s own hatred of the automobile and his blind environmental radicalism will force him to oppose such a position. In addition, Gore’s constant “Chicken Little” rantings about Global Warming are beginning to make him a target for very unkind jokes. The truth about Al Gore’s skewed vision of American life, so out of touch with the average voter, may yet cause his demise at the polls.

5. Gore’s biggest voter base is organized labor. Several major federal employee unions have obediently issued endorsements of the VP. But a survey of union employees show that an astounding seventy-four percent don’t agree with the unions’ actions. Add that lack of union rank and file support to the fact that auto workers’ unions have also expressed opposition to Gore’s radical anti-car environmental positions, including the UN’s Kyoto Global Warming treaty, and one finds a huge gap of support in Gore’s vital core base.

Clearly the White House is open for the Republicans to take…if… they attack Gore’s weaknesses… if … Pat Buchanan doesn’t siphon away too many votes… if … George W. Bush doesn’t falter during debates or try to play “me tooisms” with Gore’s policy ideas.

Republicans shouldn’t worry about close polls, even up to election day. In 1980, Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter were shown to be running neck and neck right up until the final days. But Reagan crushed Carter in a land slide the experts didn’t see coming. Gore, no “Slick Willie,” is already behind in the polls, and his base is soft. Come election day it may just turn to quick sand.

Tom DeWeese
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Tom DeWeese is President of the American Policy Center and National Grassroots Coordinator for CFACT (Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow) working to help local activists organize into Freedom Pods (www.CFACT.org). He is also the author of three books, including Now Tell Me I Was Wrong, ERASE, and Sustainable: the WAR on Free Enterprise, Private Property, and Individuals.